1. NR Futures Market:
1.1 SHFE
By CPPCC favorable influence, SHFE futures market showed larger gains on Monday, but some longs getting profits for close position, and whole SHFE shocked. There were many contrary factors, and actual transaction turned relative sticking, so the short-term SHFE would run bearish fluctuated state.
1.2 TOCOM:
At the beginning of this week, stronger crude oil futures price and other favorable factors supported TOCOM stood higher level on Monday, and then went declined as sliding exchange rate between US dollar and Yen, so most investors showed cautious attitude.
2. Pending order volumes of SCR5 in Chinese Domestic Places Unit: Yuan/mt, MT
|
Origin |
NR |
Pending order volumes（MT）/Average Prices（Yuan/mt） |
|
Mar 8 |
Mar 9 |
Mar 10 |
Mar 11 |
Mar 12 |
|
Hainan |
CNR |
168 |
168 |
168 |
128 |
182 |
|
Average Prices |
16980 |
16980 |
16980 |
16860 |
16864 |
|
SCR WF |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
|
Average Prices |
24000 |
24000 |
24000 |
24000 |
24000 |
|
Yunnan |
CNR |
52 |
104 |
104 |
104 |
114 |
|
Average Prices |
15800 |
15750 |
15750 |
15750 |
15791 |
|
SCR WF |
680 |
802 |
713 |
706 |
742 |
|
Average Prices |
24277 |
24250 |
24346 |
24344 |
24351 |
|
SCR10 |
55 |
65 |
60 |
60 |
22 |
|
Average Prices |
23500 |
23307 |
23731 |
23700 |
23700 |
|
Guangdong |
CNR |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
|
Average Prices |
16600 |
16600 |
16400 |
16400 |
16400 |
|
SCR10 |
- |
42 |
42 |
42 |
42 |
|
Average Prices |
- |
23100 |
23100 |
23100 |
23200 |
|
Origin |
NR |
Deal volumes（MT）/Average Prices（Yuan/mt） |
|
Mar 8 |
Mar 9 |
Mar 10 |
Mar 11 |
Mar 12 |
|
Yunnan |
CNR |
27 |
- |
108 |
108 |
54 |
|
Average Prices |
16600 |
- |
16600 |
16600 |
76600 |
|
Yunnan |
SCR WF |
540 |
672 |
433 |
106 |
- |
|
Average Prices |
24250 |
24343 |
24311 |
24000 |
- |
|
SCR10 |
45 |
55 |
- |
38 |
- |
|
Average Prices |
23500 |
23763 |
- |
23750 |
- |
3. Domestic Spot NR Market Review:
Domestic NR market Prices Trend Unit: Yuan/mt
|
Product Name |
Market Price (Yuan/mt) |
Change |
|
SCR5 |
Hainan |
24000-24300 |
-100 |
|
Yunnan |
24000-24500 |
-100 |
|
Compound Rubber |
Malaysia |
24700-25000 |
-200 |
|
Thailand |
24700-25000 |
-200 |
|
RSS Compound |
25000-25400 |
-300 |
|
Indonesia |
- |
- |
|
Vietnam 3L (Shanghai) |
24800-25200 |
-100 |
|
Imported NR Latex |
N-China |
18000-18100 |
-100 |
|
E-China |
17900-18100 |
- |
|
S-China |
17800-18000 |
-200 |
|
Homemade NR Latex |
17000-17100 |
- |
Domestic Imported NR Market Prices Trend:
|
Product Name |
Market Price ($/mt) |
Change |
|
SMR 20# |
3160-3200 |
-30 |
|
STR 20# |
3160-3200 |
-30 |
|
RSS3 |
3150-3200 |
-20 |
|
SIR 20# |
3130-3170 |
-30 |
NR USD Offers Trend from other Countries:
|
Product Name |
Market Price ($/mt) |
Change |
|
Imported NR |
SMR 20# |
3250 |
- |
|
STR 20# |
3250-3280 |
-10 |
|
RSS3 |
3290-3310 |
+10 |
|
SIR 20# |
3180-3210 |
-10 |
|
Compound Rubber |
Malaysia |
3250-3280 |
- |
|
Thailand |
3250-3280 |
- |
|
RSS Compound |
3300 |
- |
|
Vietnam |
3L |
3220-3260 |
- |
|
3L in Mong Cai |
- |
- |
|
NR Latex |
Thailand |
2270-2300 |
-10 |
|
Malaysia |
2270 |
+10 |
|
Vietnam（bulk） |
2100-2120 |
-10 |
Remark: Vietnam 3L from Mong Cai, offered by RMB.
4. NR Market Review This Week:
In early week, spot NR market moved uptrend followed with rising futures market, but the gained range was unapparent. While some regional inquires turned relative actively especially imported NR market and Free Trade Zone, but downstream demand did not turn better, then whole Natural Rubber market performed sluggish as bearish NR futures market. Viewing actual deals, most factories were occurred labor shortage in E-China and S-China, and some manufactories showed unsmooth distribution leading digesting pre-stocks only. In addition, most manufactories reflected current NR prices had faced stronger resistance, lackluster deals. Meanwhile whole NR delivery turned fewer as closed customs between Dongguan and Mongcai, so Vietnam 3L market ran relative steadied, spare transaction.
This week NR Latex market stood at higher quotations as tightened resource and worse weather situation in major producing areas, and at the same time downstream demand still showed bearish giving some depression on market trade. Downstream plants hold tight stocks and had less intention to replenish stocks, so some investors thought futures NR Latex market faced increased supply after cutting rubber ran smooth, and late market might show some stagnated state.
5. Whole NR and NR Latex Market Forecasting:
At present, whole Natural Rubber market entered stagnated state, and its quotations ran at higher position, and most participants showed more accounts on clear guide. However, stock market and commodity market ran relative softened and CPPCC did not announce favorable policies, and some regions also suffered drought and increased stocks in other areas, so future NR market had difficulty to search clear position, and ran shocked possibility in short term.
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