1. Description of Domestic Oil Coke Market:

 

    The low sulfur oil coke demand exceeded supply, the offers soared largely; middle sulfur oil coke was priced at high level due to the restriction of transportation and stocks; while the offer of high sulfur oil coke tended decrease as the supply exceeded demand due to increased supplies. The downstream carbon industry operated hard; while the electrolytic aluminum industry operated worse influenced by the electricity restriction and production reduce. The operation rate from refining industries in S-China market enhanced, but the high sulfur oil coke tended the falling trend as the resources were efficient.

 

    In whole, the domestic oil coke market recovered calm in July after several months’ price-increasing. Although the downstream demand remained normal, the oil coke sales were common, which was restrained by the downstream market sentiment and railway transportation. The enlarged inventory, to some extent, limited the oil coke market.

 

    Shandong market was not influenced by the two groups (Sinopec and PetroChina); most refineries were at a picking up trend, few were fluctuated at low level. As the quality turned better, it is believed the oil coke market would have a prosperous future. All in all, the oil market tended stable in July.     

 

2. Oil Coke Prices in NE-China Market:

 

    In July, the low sulfur oil coke demand exceeded supply, as the supplies from Jinxi PC and Jinzhou PC were few; Daqing PC was in maintenance state. The downstream purchasing activity maintained high, which resulted in the price-increasing in the local region with the range of Yuan 300/mt. 1# B oil coke from Jinxi PC exported 10,000mt this month, which involved the oil coke price broke through Yuan 4,000/mt.Under the support of the downstream consumption, the better sales situation and refineries’ active sentiment, It was believed the oil coke market would pick up in the future. 

                                                    

Refineries	Types	June 30th	July 31st	Markup
Jinzhou PC	1#B	3800/3550 (Truck/Train)	4150/3900 (Truck/Train)	+350
Jinxi PC	1#B	3700/3650 (Truck/Train)	4050/4000 (Truck/Train)	+350
LIaoyang PC	2#B	2900	2700	-200
Liaohe PC	3#B	3400	3500	+100
Fushun PC	First Plant 1#A	3450	3900	+450
	Second Plant 1#A	3550	4000
	First Plant 1#B	3420	3870
	Second Plant 1#B	3490	3940
Jilin PC	1#B	3030	3230	+200
Daqing PC	1#A	3550	4000	+450
Yingkou Jiafu	2#A	3000	2900	-100

 

    Unit: Yuan/mt

   

    Oil Coke Prices in N-China Market:

 

    As the resources supply increased and the transportation restrained during Olympic, the downstream oil coke demand tended common in N-China market with general sales. The local market was thin in July, with the average offer around Yuan 2,700-2,750/mt. The oil coke price in Dagang Oil Field and Xinquan PC was at Yuan 3,900/mt and Yuan 2,300/mt respectively. The price–increasing trend in N-China market was common; the middle sulfur oil coke was hard to sell. The offer reached its peak and was hard to go on. So it was anticipated the offer in August would remain stable.  

 

Refinery	Types	June 30th	July 31st	Markup
Cangzhou Refinery	2#B	2720/2700 (Train/Truck)	2760/2740 (Train/Truck)	+40
Shijiazhuang Refinery	2#B	2760/2730 (Train/Truck)	2760/2730 (Train/Truck)	0
Tianjin PC	2#B-3#A	2730/2700 (Train/Truck)	2770/2740 (Train/Truck)	+40
Luoyang PC	2#B-3#A	2700	2700	0
Dagang Oil Field	1#A	3650	3900	+250
Xinquan PC	1#B	2300	2300	0

 

 

3. Forecasting: 

 

    Most refineries increased with a small range this month. As the Olympic came nearby, many uncertain factors appeared in the market, such as the transportation and environment restriction, tight electricity supply, which made the oil coke transportation hard. So many refineries had to transport by ship and truck. Under the support of firmed downstream demand, the upstream and downstream overcame the transportation restriction together. Influenced by Olympic, many plants had to be shun down due to environment pollution, the development of high energy consuming industry was limited and the electrolytic aluminum industry carried out adjustment, which influence the oil coke market a lot.

 

    The supply and demand of low sulfur oil coke still remained the better trend, but the offers entered into the fluctuation stage. Seeing from the tight supply, the following market would continue to increase. While the middle sulfur oil coke market was more complicated. The co-reduction in electrolytic aluminum brought large pressure to the oil coke market, so for a short stage, the middle sulfur oil coke market would remain firm. The high sulfur oil coke market was in obvious large pressure, and it was forecasted the offer would go downward again.